Regional Pressure Map
Clear — favorable for origination
Watch — underwrite with cushion
Stormy — tighten structure / pricing
H / L = pressure centers (steady vs. stressed conditions) — ▲▲▲ cold front (rate pressure moving east) — ●●● warm front (Southeast demand pushing north)
● = top-40 metro by population — ● rising ≥3% YoY, ● flat 0–3%, ● declining. Hover any dot for the number.
How to read the map, and home price movers
Actual U.S. state geography (Alaska and Hawaii shown as insets, lower left) — state shading reflects underwriting conditions (collateral values, absorption, borrower demand), not raw price change. Dots mark the top 40 U.S. metros by population, colored by their own YoY home price trend — 9 carry exact FHFA metro-level figures; the rest use their state's figure as a proxy until FHFA's full metro table is out. Southeast and Gulf/Texas remain BPA's core, highest-conviction territory.
Fastest home price appreciation (YoY)
Alaska+8.3%
Vermont+7.3%
Hawaii+5.8%
Illinois+5.6%
West Virginia+5.6%
Softest home price appreciation (YoY)
New Mexico-1.2%
Washington-0.9%
Colorado-0.5%
California-0.2%
Texas+0.5%
FHFA House Price Index, Q2 2026 (purchase-only, seasonally adjusted). Other states shown on the map are census-division estimates pending FHFA's full 50-state table.
Standing submarket notes: Fort Myers risk, FL luxury divergence (Sep 15–25)
⚠ Submarket to watch
Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL
Worst-performing large metro in the country right now, and it sits inside a "Clear" state on this map. Zillow ZHVI -7.3% YoY; ATTOM has the median sale price down 9% YoY in Q1; forecasts call for a further -10.2% in 2026. Drivers are structural, not cyclical: insurance premiums running ~3x the national average on hurricane/reinsurance/litigation costs, plus 20-25% more active listings than a year ago. Downtown Fort Myers specifically is down 19.5% YoY on price.
Underwriting takeaway: a Florida address is not a proxy for Florida strength. Confirm county/ZIP-level insurance cost trends and listing inventory before pricing any SW Florida coastal collateral, regardless of the state or regional read above.
↑ Divergence to watch
The Luxury Market Is Booming — Right Next To The Fort Myers Story Above
National luxury home prices (top 5% by metro) rose 5.3% YoY for the three months through July 2026 — nearly triple the pace of the broader FHFA number on this map. It's not a coincidence that Florida anchors it: Miami luxury prices are up 18% YoY while Miami's non-luxury homes are down 1.3%; Tampa luxury is up 15.4% while Tampa non-luxury is roughly flat at +0.3%. Florida has accounted for about half of the nation's priciest home sales in 2026. The luxury-to-non-luxury price ratio nationally sits at 3.6x, with West Palm Beach (8.9x) and Miami (8.8x) showing the widest premiums. Fresh confirmation as of August: jumbo credit availability pulled back (the leading mortgage credit availability index's decline was driven mostly by jumbo tightening) at the same time $1M+ transaction volume climbed 3.9% and all-cash buyers hit 27% of closings — conventional jumbo channels tightening while high-end demand keeps climbing is the textbook setup for private bridge lending on trophy assets.
Underwriting takeaway: the same state (FL) is telling three different stories at once — Fort Myers collapsing, Miami/Tampa's middle market flat, and Miami/Tampa's top 5% accelerating. Luxury borrowers are largely cash-rich and rate-insensitive, which makes high-end bridge/jumbo lending a genuine "Clear" pocket right now — and the jumbo-channel pullback is actively pushing more of that trophy-asset demand toward private lenders. Still concentrated in a handful of coastal/resort metros, not a broad-based opportunity — don't let a strong luxury comp validate a non-luxury deal in the same ZIP code.